Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Western Liguria (North Western Italy): A first attempt towards the understanding and quantification of hazard uncertainty     

Simone Barani  Daniele Spallarossa  Paolo Bazzurro  Claudio Eva   《Tectonophysics》2007,435(1-4):13-35

The use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses often involves a large number of branches that reflect the uncertainty in the selection of different models and in the selection of the parameter values of each model. The sensitivity analysis, as proposed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817], is an efficient tool that allows the construction of logic trees focusing attention on the parameters that have greater impact on the hazard.In this paper the sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify the parameters that have the largest influence on the Western Liguria (North Western Italy) seismic hazard. The analysis is conducted for six strategic sites following the multi-parameter approach developed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817] and accounts for both mean hazard values and hazard values corresponding to different percentiles (e.g., 16%-ile and 84%-ile). The results are assessed in terms of the expected PGA with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock conditions and account for both the contribution from specific source zones using the Cornell approach [Cornell, C.A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606] and the spatially smoothed seismicity [Frankel, A., 1995. Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21]. The influence of different procedures for calculating seismic hazard, seismic catalogues (epicentral parameters), source zone models, frequency–magnitude parameters, maximum earthquake magnitude values and attenuation relationships is considered. As a result, the sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the parameters with higher influence on the hazard. Only these parameters should be subjected to careful discussion or further research in order to reduce the uncertainty in the hazard while those with little or no effect can be excluded from subsequent logic-tree-based seismic hazard analyses.  相似文献   

Adaptive Predictive Inverse Control of Offshore Jacket Platform Based on Rough Neural Network     

崔洪宇  赵德有  周平 《中国海洋工程》2009,23(2):185-198

The offshore jacket platform is a complex and time-varying nonlinear system,which can be excited of harmful vibration by external loads.It is difficult to obtain an ideal control performance for passive control methods or traditional active control methods based on accurate mathematic model.In this paper,an adaptive inverse control method is proposed on the basis of novel rough neural networks (RNN) to control the harmful vibration of the offshore jacket platform,and the offshore jacket platform model is established by dynamic stiffness matrix (DSM) method.Benefited from the nonlinear processing ability of the neural networks and data interpretation ability of the rough set theory,RNN is utilized to identify the predictive inverse model of the offshore jacket platform system.Then the identified model is used as the adaptive predictive inverse controller to control the harmful vibration caused by wave and wind loads,and to deal with the delay problem caused by signal transmission in the control process.The numerical results show that the constructed novel RNN has advantages such as clear structure,fast training speed and strong error-tolerance ability,and the proposed method based on RNN can effectively control the harmfid vibration of the offshore jacket platform.  相似文献   

Seismic amplifications from offshore to shore     

《Applied Ocean Research》2015

The objective of this study is to determine numerical estimations of seismic amplifications of waves traveling from offshore to shore considering the effect of sea floor configurations. According to the Boundary Element Method, boundary elements were used to irradiate waves and density force can be determined for each element. From this hypothesis, Huygens’ Principle is implemented since diffracted waves are constructed at the boundary from which they are radiated and this is equivalent to Somigliana's theorem. Application of boundary conditions leads to determine a system of integral equations of Fredholm type of second kind, which is solved by the Gaussian method. Various numerical models were analyzed, a first one was used to validate the proposed formulation and some other models were used to show various ideal sea floor configurations to estimate seismic amplifications. Once the formulation was validated, basic slope configurations were studied for estimating spectra of seismic amplifications for various sea floor materials. In general terms, compressional waves (P-waves) can produce seismic amplifications of the incident wave in the order of 2–5. On the other hand, distortional waves (S-waves) can produce amplifications up to 5.5 times the incident wave. A relevant finding is that the highest seismic amplifications due to an offshore earthquake are always located near the shore-line and not offshore despite the seafloor configuration.  相似文献   

Lessons from stakeholder dialogues on marine aquaculture in offshore wind farms: Perceived potentials,constraints and research gaps     

《Marine Policy》2015

Drawing on a case study in Germany, this contribution explores the practical application of offshore aquaculture within offshore wind farms in view of the different stakeholders involved. Using a transdisciplinary research approach, an understanding of the rationalities and interests among the different involved stakeholder groups was explored. Offshore wind energy is high on the political agenda in Germany. The vast spatial requirements however inherit potential user conflicts with competing, and under current legislation excluded users such as fishermen. Solutions for combining sustainable uses of the same ocean space have thus seen increasing interest within the research community in Germany and in Europe over the past years. This paper was inspired by and presents the outcomes of a stakeholder analysis and in particular a stakeholder workshop. Central focus was placed on academics and private as well as public stakeholders engaged in current research efforts of combining offshore wind farms and aquaculture in the German North Sea. The paper identifies the overall acceptance of such a multi-use scenario in society, opportunities and constraints as perceived by the stakeholders, and key research gaps. The results confirm the assumption that there is a clear need, and also willingness on behalf of the policy makers and the research community, to find sustainable, resource- and space-efficient solutions for combined ocean use.  相似文献   

强台风下导管架平台倒塌全过程数值仿真     

朱本瑞  陈国明  林红  刘红兵  黄超 《海洋工程》2015,33(2):97-104

针对强台风引起的平台倒塌问题,综合隐式有限元与显式动力有限元算法,建立导管架平台结构倒塌全过程仿真流程;提出基于重现期的Pushover分析方法,充分考虑平台侧向环境载荷分布的变化以及可能的甲板上浪载荷因素,使得确定的倒塌环境载荷更加真实;采用APDL编制平台隐式与显式有限元模型转化程序,有效解决波浪载荷计算与精确施加的难题;在此基础上,应用LS-DYNA实现导管架平台在强台风载荷下的倒塌全过程仿真,动态再现平台结构倒塌过程中的构件破坏失效及内力分布,深入揭示平台结构的倒塌机理。研究成果可为导管架平台结构抗台风设计及理论研究提供参考。  相似文献   

Investigation on Cutting Stability of Jacket in Decommissioning Process     

李美求  段梦兰  黄一 《海洋工程》2015,29(5):649-661

Jacket cutting operation is one of the most complicated and highest risk operations in the process of decommissioning offshore piled platform, the security and stability of which must be assured. In this paper, the current research on offshore structure removal and jacket cutting is introduced, on the basis of which the types of load along with the load calculation method are determined. The main influences on the stability of a jacket in cutting are analyzed. The experiment test plan is drawn by using orthogonal testing method, and the formula of critical load during the cutting procedure is deduced by differential evolution algorithm. To verify the method and results of this paper, an offshore piled platform to be decommissioned in the South China Sea is taken for an example, and the detailed schedule for jacket cutting is made with the three-dimensional finite element model of the jacket established. The natural frequency, stress, strain and stability of the jacket during cutting process are calculated, which indicates that the results of finite element analysis agree well with that of the deduced formula. The result provides the scientific reference for guaranteeing the safety of jacket in cutting operation.  相似文献   

Soil-Structure Interaction Analysis of Jack-up Platforms Subjected to Monochrome and Irregular Waves     

Maziar Gholami KORZANI  Ali Akbar AGHAKOUCHAK 《海洋工程》2015,29(1):65-80

As jack-up platforms have recently been used in deeper and harsher waters, there has been an increasing demand to understand their behaviour more accurately to develop more sophisticated analysis techniques. One of the areas of significant development has been the modelling of spudcan performance, where the load-displacement behaviour of the foundation is required to be included in any numerical model of the structure. In this study, beam on nonlinear winkler foundation (BNWF) modeling—which is based on using nonlinear springs and dampers instead of a continuum soil media—is employed for this purpose. A regular monochrome design wave and an irregular wave representing a design sea state are applied to the platform as lateral loading. By using the BNWF model and assuming a granular soil under spudcans, properties such as soil nonlinear behaviour near the structure, contact phenomena at the interface of soil and spudcan (such as uplifting and rocking), and geometrical nonlinear behaviour of the structure are studied. Results of this study show that inelastic behaviour of the soil causes an increase in the lateral displacement at the hull elevation and permanent unequal settlement in soil below the spudcans, which are increased by decreasing the friction angle of the sandy soil. In fact, spudcans and the underlying soil cause a relative fixity at the platform support, which changes the dynamic response of the structure compared with the case where the structure is assumed to have a fixed support or pinned support. For simulating this behaviour without explicit modelling of soil-structure interaction (SSI), moment-rotation curves at the end of platform legs, which are dependent on foundation dimensions and soil characteristics, are obtained. These curves can be used in a simplified model of the platform for considering the relative fixity at the soil-foundation interface.  相似文献   

基于多源卫星数据的南海油气井平台遥感提取方法研究——以湄公盆地周边海域为例          下载免费PDF全文

王明珠  陈颖民  韩飞  陈婕  许国强  李柏权  江佳琳 《海洋开发与管理》2022,39(3):72-78

文章以湄公盆地周边海域为研究区,利用遥感技术手段,综合多时相、多源卫星数据,探讨不同数据源海上油气井平台提取方法。本次研究,首先基于1992—2018年27景多时相夜间灯光数据和2019年两期SAR数据,分别采用高斯滤波法和双参数CFAR法,实现了全区域油气井平台的自动化提取;然后,针对有确定性资料辅助判定的区域,采用人工目视解译的方法,对长时间序列Landsat-8 OLI及YG24号光学卫星影像进行提取,并将解译结果作为标准数据,用于验证前两种自动提取方法的精度。结果表明：夜间灯光影像数据易获取、成本低,提取方法简单,而SAR影像提取结果的精度高、流程烦琐,建议根据多源卫星数据的特点相互结合,实现快速、高效、精确的信息提取,应用于海上油气井平台监测。  相似文献   

靠球减震系统在导管架平台中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

王梦川  杨树耕  唐友刚  陈涛  王宁  张建勇 《海洋工程》2014,32(2):24-29

导管架生产储油平台在油轮靠泊和外输期间,如遇风浪天气,平台的晃动非常明显,为此引入橡胶靠球减震系统。运用ANSYS有限元分析软件,建立导管架生产储油平台的真实有限元模型,计算平台在靠船碰撞力和波浪力共同作用下平台关键点位置应力变化及振动响应过程,为靠球减震系统在实际工程中应用提供理论依据。  相似文献   

导管架式海上风力发电支撑结构振型扩阶方法     

李炜  王卫英  刘福顺  陈文文  彭春涪  卢洪超 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2014,44(3)

提出1种适用于海上风力发电支撑结构的模态振型扩阶方法。该方法无需借助转换矩阵实现振型扩阶,而是依靠实测模态并通过修正有限元模型对应振型在未测试自由度的振型值而获得空间完备的模态振型,并且所发展的方法在一定程度上可以忽略有限元模型存在的建模误差,是1种直接的估算方法,计算效率相对较高。文中采用三桩导管架式海上风力发电支撑结构验证提出方法的正确性以及在低阶模态振型扩阶上的优越性。数值结果表明,该方法对传感器位置、数量依赖程度低,尤其对于海上风电结构,仅在结构的水深较浅部位布置少数传感器即可比较精确的实现低阶模态振型扩阶,具有良好的工程应用前景。  相似文献